Overconfidence and Stock Market Participation of Potential Retail Investor in Indonesia: A Preliminary Study

Authors

  • Dormauli Justina Universitas Sumatera Selatan, Indonesia

Keywords:

Overconfidence, Stock Market Participation, Potential Retail Investor, Financial Literacy, Decision Making

Abstract

This study explores the existence of overconfidence among potential retail investors in Indonesia when deciding to participate in the stock market. The investigation was conducted using a quick survey followed by interviews with two informants. The results indicate that overconfidence in financial literacy does exist in individuals. This study is preliminary, so its results can be used as a basis for further research. A suggested direction for further research is to examine the causal relationship between overconfidence and stock market participation in the Indonesian context.

References

Abdeldayem, M. M., & Sedeek, D. S. (2018). Managerial behavior and capital structure decisions; do overconfidence, optimism and risk aversion matter? Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(7), 925–945. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.87.925.945

Abul, S. J. (2019). Factors influencing Individual Investor Behaviour: Evidence from the Kuwait Stock Exchange. Asian Social Science, 15(3), 27. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n3p27

Al-Hilu, K., Sohel Azad, A. S. M., Chazi, A., & Khallaf, A. (2017). Investors’ Behavior in an Emerging, Tax-Free Market. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(7), 1573–1588. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1178110

Ali, M., Ansari, N. U. H., Chishty, B. A., Puah, C. H., & Ashfaq, M. (2023). Investor Behaviour and Investment Decisions: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange. Asian Academy of Management Journal, 28(2), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.21315/aamj2023.28.2.1

Alleyne, P., & Broome, T. (2011). Using the theory of planned behaviour and risk propensity to measure investment intentions among future investors. Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies, 36, 1–20. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299483632

Apergis, N., Artikis, P. G., & Kyriazis, D. (2015). Does stock market liquidity explain real economic activity? New evidence from two large European stock markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 38, 42–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.05.002

Balasubramnian, B., & Sargent, C. S. (2020). Impact of inflated perceptions of financial literacy on financial decision making. Journal of Economic Psychology, 80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2020.102306

Bao, H. X. H., & Li, S. H. (2020). Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(232), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100232

Guiso, L., Haliassos, M., Jappelli, T., & Claessens, S. (2003). Household Stockholding in Europe: Where Do We Stand and Where Do We Go? Economic Policy, 18(36), 123–170.

Haliassos, M., & Bertaut, C. C. (1995). Why do so Few Hold Stocks? The Economic Journal, 105(432), 1110–1129. https://about.jstor.org/terms

Hou, H., & Cheng, S. Y. (2017). The dynamic effects of banking, life insurance, and stock markets on economic growth. Japan and the World Economy, 41, 87–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2017.02.001

Huij, J., & Post, T. (2011). On the performance of emerging market equity mutual funds. Emerging Markets Review, 12(3), 238–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2011.03.001

Huston, S. J. (2010). Measuring Financial Literacy. Journal of Consumer Affairs, 44(2), 296–316. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6606.2010.01170.x

Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007). Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 76–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.10.002

Lusardi, A., & Mitchell, O. S. (2008). Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare? Ssrn, 98(2). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1094097

Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2013). Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change. Economic Modelling, 32(1), 316–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015

Miller, D. J., Spengler, E. S., & Spengler, P. M. (2015). A meta-analysis of confidence and judgment accuracy in clinical decision making. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 62(4), 553–567. https://doi.org/10.1037/cou0000105

Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The Trouble With Overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502–517. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502

Muthukrishna, M., Henrich, J., Toyokawa, W., Hamamura, T., Kameda, T., & Heine, S. J. (2018). Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of genuine overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations. PLoS ONE, 13(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202288

Palia, D., Qi, Y., & Wu, Y. (2014). Heterogeneous Background Risks and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Micro-level Data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(8), 1687–1720.

Piaget, J. (1952). When Thinking Begins.

Pikulina, E., Renneboog, L., & Tobler, P. N. (2017). Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach. Journal of Corporate Finance, 43, 175–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.002

Raut, R. K. (2020). Past behaviour, financial literacy and investment decision-making process of individual investors. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(6), 1243–1263. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-07-2018-0379

Sivaramakrishnan, S., Srivastava, M., & Rastogi, A. (2017). Attitudinal factors, financial literacy, and stock market participation. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 35(5), 818–841. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-01-2016-0012

Xia, T., Wang, Z., & Li, K. (2014). Financial Literacy Overconfidence and Stock Market Participation. Social Indicators Research, 119(3), 1233–1245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0555-9

Downloads

Published

2025-08-30

How to Cite

Justina, D. (2025). Overconfidence and Stock Market Participation of Potential Retail Investor in Indonesia: A Preliminary Study. ProBisnis : Jurnal Manajemen, 16(4), 916–924. Retrieved from https://www.ejournal.joninstitute.org/index.php/ProBisnis/article/view/1097